ChainGPT and Several Partners

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Does Plugin Rhyme with App Store?

ChatGPT Growth Potential & How it Compares With Past Technological Revolutions

One of the most recent and exciting developments is nonetheless still the introduction of ChatGPT plugins. Although still in an early Alpha guarded by a long waitlist, ChatGPT plugins are poised to usher in a new era of seamless integration between AI and third-party applications, much like the early days of the App Store. However, there’s a key difference: the barriers to entry for ChatGPT plugins are significantly lower, paving the way for rapid adoption and growth in the AI space.

These plugins have the potential to revolutionize how we interact with AI, making it more accessible, efficient, and useful than ever before. In this article, we’ll draw comparisons between the early days of the App Store and the adoption of ChatGPT plugins, highlighting the lower barriers to entry and the potential for rapid growth.

Very simplified visualization of where Plugins come in

When the App Store was first launched, it changed the way we interacted with our devices and opened up a world of possibilities for developers. However, the barriers to entry were quite high. Users needed to invest in expensive devices like iPhones and iPads, and developers had to learn new programming languages and syntax to build, test, and deploy apps.

The internet is abuzz with how this is the iPhone moment for A.I.–it is only natural, we are creatures of habit–we always try and use past data to predict the future. But empiric observation may not be enough when evaluating the possible impact of a game-changing technological revolution. It is akin to those that would’ve compared the internet with the invention of the Steam Engine. Yes, there are similitudes, but the pace of adoption was orders of magnitude faster.

From the time the engine was invented until an average Peter in London could jump on the first demo, it was 4 years, and another 17 years until the first “consumer-ready” product. This is of course because as technology advances, improvements are easy to realize and because software can move orders of magnitude faster than hardware.

Thesis: In the case of the App Store, users needed to invest in expensive hardware (iPhones, iPads, etc.) to access apps. For ChatGPT plugins, users can access these AI-enhanced tools simply by opening a tab on their internet browser. This makes it significantly easier for users to try out and adopt these plugins without making a substantial investment upfront.

Below is a table showcasing the user adoption of the App Store over the 5 years after its launch in 2008.

As evident in the table, the user adoption of the App Store has grown exponentially since its launch in 2008, with a steady increase in both the number of users and cumulative app downloads. This data highlights the immense potential for AI-enhanced plugins like ChatGPT to experience similar growth trajectories.

The App Store though still has a physical limitation. Users needed access to both an expensive device (iPhone or iPad) and a network connection to get any app into their phone. Still, even with this limitation, its usage exploded, getting to its first 100 Million users in 4 years. Now, let’s take a look at the adoption rates of messaging apps WhatsApp, Line, and WeChat, measured by the years since their respective launches:

That looks even juicier, doesn’t it? 100 Mill in the first 3 years for WhatsApp and Line, 2 years for WeChat (not fair to compare, I know). Now let’s take a look at the little data we have from OpenAI’s ChatGPT:

That is something, isn’t it? Let’s see it all in perspective:

Ay Mamá!

ChatGPT plugins, on the other hand, have significantly lower barriers to entry. Users can access these plugins by simply opening a tab on their internet browser, and developers can build them using the familiar OpenAPI format. This makes creating ChatGPT plugins easier and more accessible than developing traditional apps, which could lead to higher adoption rates.

The lower entry cost for ChatGPT plugins is a major contributing factor to their potential for rapid adoption. More people are likely to try out these AI-enhanced plugins without having to make a significant upfront investment. The ease of use, effectiveness, and security of these plugins will play a crucial role in their adoption and retention, and companies like OpenAI need to maintain credibility as secure data hosts.

So, it’s easier to access, easier to develop, and can have more impact. Let’s explore the potential directions this new market could take and how it will shape the future of AI-enhanced technology.

Three key factors that will create an upper asymptote in the adoption of ChatGPT plugins are (1) security and trust in OpenAI, (2) Ease of user interaction, in this case, limited by text; and (3) the capacity of companies and developers to develop the interactions. Let’s explore these factors and how they will impact the growth of the plugin ecosystem.

To ensure the success of the ChatGPT plugin ecosystem, OpenAI must maintain its credibility as a secure platform that can be trusted to host users’ data securely. By fostering a strong sense of security and trust, OpenAI will encourage more users to try out these AI-enhanced plugins and contribute to their rapid adoption.

While there might be an initial learning curve for some users who are accustomed to traditional UI, the majority of internet users are already familiar with chat interfaces from platforms like Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram. Businesses have been building bots and delivering complex interactions on these platforms for years, particularly in the APAC and LATAM regions, where Line/WeChat or WhatsApp interactions respectively between users and businesses are very much the norms.

Many large companies have recognized the potential of messaging apps for complex text interactions with their users. Here are just two notable examples:

These projects were, of course, much larger in scope than it would be to build a Plugin, but it showcases both the willingness of businesses to build text-based interfaces and the ability of users to interact with them to trigger actions in the real world.

Beyond text, but still GPT

Although the service is not publicly available, we know as well that GPT-4 has multimodal capabilities (i.e. can take images as input). This, combined with some prompt magic will be able to create interfaces that keep us where we are the most comfortable, whilst still being able to query models. It may get to be able to understand our screen and guide us without even direct text input.

Not only is it easier for users to access ChatGPT plugins, but it’s also less challenging for developers to create them. Developing a plugin primarily involves using the OpenAPI format, which is simpler than learning a new programming language or syntax (as was required to launch an App in the App Store). As these plugins focus on text interactions, developers can create impactful products without having to specialize or fill in multiple disciplines, such as UI/UX design. Allowing smaller teams taking on these projects, or companies to easily outsource their development to 3rd parties.

This lower entry cost is likely to contribute to a higher adoption rate, enabling a wider range of developers to enter the market and create innovative solutions. We are already seeing an explosion of Plugins available, and that is taking into account that OpenAI seems to be going very slowly down the Waitlist. (More on these new plugins below)

As ChatGPT plugins gain traction, there are both exciting opportunities and potential challenges ahead. To fully realize the AI-enhanced interactions that ChatGPT plugins can offer we will have to wait for OpenAI to relax access to it. But let’s discuss some obstacles that may impact widespread adoption.

ChatGPT plugins have the potential to revolutionize the way we interact with digital services. Some standout examples of plugins available today include:

These plugins showcase a wide range of applications, from booking flights and ordering groceries to language learning and accessing complex computational knowledge. As more developers join the ecosystem, we can expect to see even more innovative use cases emerge, pushing the boundaries of AI-enhanced interactions.

Yet, many more use cases still are unexplored and we can see developers publishing new test plugins continuously trying to get ahead in this crazy market. Take a look at some of those you can find if you search today:

Still, we can count the official plugins with the fingers on a Midjourney hand. This is an artificial limitation only created by OpenAI. And the reason is…

Despite the immense potential of ChatGPT plugins, some challenges must be addressed to ensure widespread adoption:

In conclusion, ChatGPT plugins have the potential to reshape the way we interact with AI and access digital services. By capitalizing on the opportunities offered by AI-enhanced interactions and addressing the challenges ahead, the ChatGPT plugin ecosystem can unlock new possibilities and drive innovation in the AI space.

The exclusive dependency on software, standard formats used as well as the familiarity of chat UIs, combined with the new capabilities of ChatGPT plugins, creates a perfect environment for rapid adoption.

As more developers build plugins that cater to a wide range of use cases, users will become increasingly comfortable with incorporating ChatGPT plugins into their daily routines. This will help drive the growth and expansion of the ChatGPT plugin ecosystem, making it an essential part of how we interact with AI and access digital services tomorrow.

If only access to developing Plugins and working with APIs was equalized, we could have a tipping point that will drive users to drop google, Siri, etc in just a few months.

Get ready to witness a transformative shift in the way we interact with technology!

ChainGPT and Several Partners

Does Plugin Rhyme with App Store?

ChatGPT Growth Potential & How it Compares With Past Technological Revolutions

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